Dr. Denise Youngblood-Coleman

The Political Intelligence Briefing is a report on significant political developments across the international spectrum. The Political Intelligence Briefing is written by CountryWatch's editor on a weekly basis and it is intended to inform CountryWatch users of important political events evolving in the world.

March  2010 Intelligence Briefing:

The "Featured Country" is Iraq.  A special "In the News" entry examines Chile and Turkey. "Global Economy" features Iceland and Greece. The section titled, "International  Hot Stories," includes coverage of: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Russia, Armenia, Turkey, Pakistan, China, Taiwan, Fiji, United States, Guatemala, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad. "Spotlight" focuses on the United States.  "Government and Politics" looks at Ukraine.  "Elections Update" covers:  Tajikistan, Togo and Iraq.

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Featured Country

Middle East: Iraq

Iraqis go to the polls to vote in parliamentary elections

Iraqi citizens were scheduled to go to the polls on March 7, 2010, to vote in the second parliamentary elections  since the 2003 United States-led invasion of that country. The elections occurred at a significant moment in Iraq's political landscape, with United States military forces due to withdraw most of its combat troops by the middle of the year, and a full withdrawal anticipated by 2011. With varied political blocs expected to win representation in parliament, a coalition would likely have to be forged.  Whether or not this complicated political terrain would result in more diverse and representative governance was yet to be seen.  Without a clear winner, an alternative scenario may involved heightened ethno-sectarian tensions, effectively setting the stage for a resurgence of conflict.

Pre-election Violence --

With violence on the rise in the months leading up to the much anticipated elections, security was increased across the country, with close to one million military and police personnel deployed to key areas.  Notably, 200,000 security personnel were to be deployed in Baghdad alone.  As well, internal travel was restricted across the country, with vehicles banned and the border with Iran closed. For some time, there have been fears that security gains made in the last year could well be reversed. Indeed, there were prevailing anxieties that Iraq could backslide into a state of ethno-sectarian war.

While one Sunni militant group, Army of Naqishbandi, said it was laying down arms for two weeks so that Iraqis could participate safely in the parliamentary elections, it was clear that other groups did not hold such a view.  Indeed, on March 3, 2010, two car bombs exploded close to government buildings in Baquba, to the north of Baghdad. In the first attack, the suicide bomber detonated his explosives-laden vehicle at a checkpoint close to a government housing office and a police station.  In the second attack, another car bomb exploded at the headquarters of the provincial council. More than 30 people died as a result and dozens more were wounded.  After injured victims were taken to a hospital for treatment from these two bombings, the hospital itself found itself to be a target of a third attack when a suicide bomber -- dressed in a police uniform -- detonated the explosives strapped to his body. 

On the first day of early voting, several people were killed.  Suicide bombers targeted polling stations in various locations across Baghdad such as Mansur and the city center.  In one case, a mortar attack was apparently aimed at a polling station and landed  in a  crowded market.  Early voting -- ahead of the official March 7, 2010 date -- was scheduled to allow  government employees, prisoners, and hospital patients to cast their ballots.

Backgrounder on the election --

Approximately 6,300 candidates from close to 300 political enclaves and alliances were contesting the elections for representation in  Iraq's 325-seat Council of Representatives.  The main coalitions were as follows:

- State of Law Coalition (Shi'ite dominated bloc includes Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Dawa Party, several Sunni tribal leaders, Kurds and several individuals)

- Iraqi National Alliance (major Shiite-dominated bloc including Ammar al-Hakim's Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), followers of anti-American cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Ja'fari, leading members of Dawa Party, and former Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Chalabi, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress)

- Iraqiya List (multi-sectarian alliance led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite, and including Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi and  Salah al-Mutlak's National Dialogue Front, which earlier threatened to withdraw from the election on the basis of discrimination as noted below*) 

- Iraq's Unity Coalition (headed by Shi'ite Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani but includes  key Sunni figures, such as Ahmad Abu-Risha, the leader of Sunni militia "Awakening Councils" of Anbar province.

- Kurdistan Alliance (composed primarily of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Kurdistan Autonomous Region's President Massud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani)

-  Iraqi Accordance Front  (Sunni-dominated bloc that includes Iraqi Islamic Party,  parliament speaker Ayad al-Samarrai, along with several other Sunni politicians)

The State of Law Coalition's strongest  challenges were expected to come from the Iraqi National Alliance and Iraqiya List. The Unity Coalition was also expected to gain seats in the parliament, while the Kurdistan Alliance was expected to retain control over several parliamentary seats.  By contrast, the Iraqi Accordance Front was expected  to suffer diminished representation. 

In the background of these prognostications resided the controversy surrounding a move to prohibit certain parties from contesting the elections. At issue was the January 2010 decision by the  Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission, which prohibited more than 500 Iraqi politicians from contesting the  elections due to alleged ties to Saddam Hussein's Baath party. That decision left politicians  out of contention and garnered criticism from the international community. A month later, a court overturned the ban; however, this ruling was itself ultimately reversed.  As a result, Mutlak of National Dialogue Front*  was banned from contesting the election due to connections with the  Ba'ath Party of  which he was a former member.  His party had threatened to withdraw from the election as a result. The matter exacerbated already strained tensions between the main ethno-sectarian groups, with Sunnis alleging discrimination. 

Latest Developments

On the official voting day -- March 7, 2010 -- Iraqis went to the polls amidst the threat of violence with bombings and mortar attacks across the country -- from Baghdad to Mosul, Fallujah, Baquba and Samarra -- killing more than 35 people.  United States President Barack Obama hailed the elections as a  "milestone" in the recent history of Iraq, saying: "Today's voting makes it clear that the future of Iraq belongs to the people of Iraq."  He continued, "Today, in the face of violence from those who would only destroy, Iraqis took a step forward in the hard work of building up their country." The United States president also reiterated his expressed intent to withdraw combat troops from Iraq in August 2010, with a full withdrawal expected by the close of 2011.

On the domestic front, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki dismissed the attacks, characterizing them as "only noise to impress voters," and asserting that "Iraqis are a people who love challenges" and whose morale would not be weakened.  He also called for full participation in the country's fledgling democracy, and urged all politicians and parties to accept the election results saying, "He who wins today may lose tomorrow and he who loses today may win tomorrow."  Those words were not likely to be easily accepted by some factions.  Notably, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi of the Iraqiya List registered his discontent with the conduct of the elections, charging: "There was major confusion inside and outside Iraq in the voting centers and that leaves a question mark over the [electoral commission's] role."

While election results were not available at the time of writing, as noted above, the general view was that some sort of coalition government was likely to be formed.  As well, there was a good chance that Prime Minister Maliki would retain power at the helm of a Shi’ite dominated coalition.  However, he would also be tasked with bringing the Sunni minority into the fold of his government, or risk them feeling alienated from the power base in Iraq.  Such an end would only imperil the country's security by igniting already-festering ethno-sectarian tensions.
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In the News

Americas: Chile

Massive earthquake in Chile

On Feb. 27, 2010, the South American country of Chile was hit by a massive earthquake.  Measuring a resounding 8.8 on the Richter scale, it was one of the largest earthquakes ever recorded.  The epicenter of the earthquake was close to the city of Conception, south of the capital city of Santiago. However, the intensity of the earthquake meant that the capital, as well as places such as O'Higgins, Biobio, Araucania and Valparaiso, were also adversely affected. In fact, the earthquake was felt as far away as Brazil, and subsequent aftershocks were felt in Argentina and Ecuador. One aftershock was as strong as 6.9 in magnitude -- an intensity level almost as high as the 7.0 magnitude earthquake that ravaged Haiti only a month earlier.

The intensity of this earthquake in Chile, and its proximity to the notorious "Ring of Fire" in the Pacific, triggered tsunami warnings and mass evacuations in countries and territories touched by that vast ocean.  Huge waves inundated portions of the port city of Talcahuano and the town of Vichato, in the BioBio region of Chile.  As well, San Juan Bautista village on Robinson Crusoe Island off Chile was immersed by massive waves, killing at least five people and leaving a dozen others missing. There were particular fears about a tsunami affecting Hawaii in a repeat of a massive 1960 earthquake that also emanated from Chile and wiped out parts of that American state. Fortunately, however, in this 2010 seismic event, actual waves were not as high as feared as they swept ashore as far as Japan.

In Chile, houses, bridges, highways and even a prison in the central part of the country were destroyed as a result of the earthquake. While the country's main airport runway was intact, the terminal building appeared to have suffered major damage.  Still, the airport was expected to soon re-open with international flights set to resume. Meanwhile, the second largest city in the country -- Conception -- was extremely hard hit, with entire enclaves within the city utterly destroyed.  The historic center of the town of Curico was reported to have been devastated.  Even in the capital city of Santiago, older buildings were either damaged or suffered collapse, and there was no electrical power or running water.

Emergency authorities said the death toll was more than 700 at the time, but was expected to increase as is typically the case in such natural disasters.  Chilean President Michelle Bachelet spoke of the heavy death toll in interviews with reporters saying, "The catastrophe is enormous. The latest number I have is 708 dead." She had earlier noted  that more than two million people were affected by the seismic event.

President Bachelet declared the country to be in a "state of catastrophe" and instituted emergency measures in six regions. As well, the Chilean army was being deployed to assist the police in preventing unrest, and also to take a lead role in the distribution of aid.  To that end, the particularly hard-hit areas of Concepcion and Maule were at the top of the list to receive humanitarian assistance.  At the logistical level, public transportation was incrementally being resumed, while efforts were being made to restore electricity to as many places as feasibly possible.

In an address televised internationally, President Bachelet noted that "forces of nature" were testing her country and she urged her fellow Chileans to "stay strong" in the face of adversity.  President Bachelet also said that her country was prepared to deal with the tragedy without foreign assistance.  To that end, rescue teams were already in place searching for survivors  amidst the wreckage of collapsed buildings. Nevertheless, the global community, including the United States, led by President Barack Obama, said that it stood ready to assist, if needed.

Chile was hit by successive aftershocks in the week following the earthquake, effectively weakening already-compromised structures in the central part of the country.  Also in the week after the main seismic event, the death toll was estimated to be around 800. Rescue operations were underway, even as the navy was under fire for failing to issue a clear tsunami warning.  While there was no Pacific-wide event, large waves nonetheless left many people dead in coastal areas.  Meanwhile, with looting on the rise, a curfew implemented to ensure security. 

Editor's Note:

Located along the south western length of South America facing the Pacific Ocean and the earthquake prone "Ring of Fire," Chile is subject to frequent seismic events.  On May 22, 1960, Chile endured another catastrophic earthquake just to the south of the city of Conception in the city of Valdivia, which left 1,655 people dead and two million people homeless. The 1960 earthquake also triggered a tsunami that devastated parts of Hawaii, the Philippines and Japan, and left a hefty death toll in those places as well. Indeed, that 1960 earthquake holds the notorious distinction of being the largest earthquake ever recorded in the world. As a well-developed South American country, in recent decades, Chilean construction has adhered to strict building codes intended to withstand strong earthquakes.  Chile has also instituted sophisticated disaster planning mechanisms, in anticipation of particularly destructive earthquakes that might ravage the country. In these regards, Chile was expected to endure this seismic event -- despite its notorious distinction of being one of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded -- with less challenges than impoverished Haiti, which was ravaged by an earthquake a month earlier and whose capital laid in ruins.

Europe/Asia: Turkey

Earthquake hits Turkey

A strong earthquake measuring 6.0 on the Richter scale struck eastern Turkey on March 8, 2010. More than 40 aftershocks occurred following the original seismic event.  The epicenter of the earthquake was reported to be  the village of Basyurt in Elazig province, but Turkish officials said that several  village in the area were affected, including Okcular, which appeared to be completely destroyed.  The death toll at the time of writing was close to 60 and expected to rise, as is normally the case in such natural disasters.

Editor's Note:

Due to its location along the North Anatolian fault line, Turkey is highly vulnerable to earthquakes.  In 1999, an earthquake measuring 7.4 in magnitude hit the western city of Izmit and left over 17,000 people dead. In that case, the high death toll was blamed on poor construction of buildings.

 
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Global Economy

Europe: Iceland

Iceland rejects banking repayment to U.K. and the Netherlands

On Jan. 5, 2010,  Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson vetoed legislation aimed at saving the online bank, Icesave. At issue was a bill that would authorize the payment of  3.8 billion euros (US$5.4 billion) to the British and Dutch governments, which had partially compensated banking clients who lost money in the collapse of the Icesave online bank during the global financial crisis if 2008.

The legislation had been previously passed by the Icelandic parliament, the Althingi, but now with the veto having been carried out, the president said the bill would have to be ratified by national referendum.  Iceland's Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir expressed disappointment with the move, saying during a news conference, "A solution to the Icesave dispute is a condition for continued cooperation with  the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the disbursement of loans from the Nordic countries."   Sigurdardottir warned the decision would imperil further disbursement of these loans and affect the IMF's next review of Iceland's economic stabilization program, while also upsetting the economic progress made by the government in the previous year.

The British government responded to these developments in Iceland  by issuing a sharp rebuke and threatening to veto  Iceland's entry into the European Union.  In an interview with the Times of London, British Financial Services Secretary Paul Myners said, "The (British) government stepped in to ensure that all retail depositors with Icesave were fully paid out, and now we expect the Icelandic government to ensure that we are repaid."

In March 2010, voters in Iceland reified the move by the president to reject the repayment plan with a resounding "no" vote in a national referendum. This voting result appeared to reflect the view of the Icelandic people that they were being punished for the ills of the banking sector.  Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir  said that despite the defeat, her government would remain in office, and try to forge an agreement to resolve the financial crisis.  She said, "This has no impact on the life of the government. We need to keep going and finish the debate. We have to get an agreement."  The agreement to which she referred to ongoing negotiations with the British and the Dutch, aimed at crafting a new repayment plan, irrespective of the referendum results.

Europe: Greece

Greek economy in crisis as striking workers rail against EU's demand for austerity

In December 2009, the new Greek head of government, Prime Minister George Papandreou, announced a series of harsh spending cuts in order to address the country's economic woes.  He warned that without action such as a hiring freeze on  public sector jobs, closure of overseas tourism offices, and decreased social security spending, Greece was at risk of "sinking under its debts."  He also said that  his country had  "lost every trace of credibility" on the economic front and would have  to "move immediately to a new social deal."

Fears of a government debt default in Europe emerged in the first week of February 2010, with all eyes focused on Greece.  Of concern was the rising cost of insuring Greek debt against default, and fears were rising that a bailout by the International Monetary Fund  might be in the offing.

For its part,  the Greek government pledged to reduce its budget deficit by three percent of gross domestic product by 2012. That move was welcomed by the European Commission but met with the threat of strikes by Greece's largest union, which has railed against the prospect of austerity measures.  By Feb. 10, 2010, the strike by the country's largest public sector union in Greece was going forward.  Simultaneously, Prime Minister George Papandreou promised to "take any necessary measures" to reduce Greece's deficit including a freeze on public sector pay, increased taxes and the implementation of changes to the pension system.

The next day, leaders of the European Union said that while Greece had not asked for assistance, they stood ready to help ensure stability within the euro zone.  A statement issued from a summit in Brussels read as follows: "We fully support the efforts of the Greek government and their commitment to do whatever is necessary, including adopting additional measures to ensure that the ambitious targets set in the stability program for 2010 and the following years are met."  The statement, however, did not specify the nature of such support although there were indications that a loan might be in the offing.  Following a meeting of European leaders on Feb. 11, 2010,  Austria's Chancellor Werner Faymann explained the need to support fellow European Union member states saying, "It is important to have solidarity."  However, he added, "We are not going to give the  money as a present, it will be as loans."

Only a few days later, however, the news emerging from Europe was more grim as regards to Greece's situation.  As reported by the British publication, the Telegraph, the council of European Union finance ministers issued an ultimatum to Greece, warning that if that country did not comply with austerity measures by March 16, 2010, it would lose sovereign control over its tax and spend policies.  The council also warned that the European Union would invoke Article 126.9 of the Lisbon Treaty to take control from Athens and impose requisite cuts.  This threat was likely to have more of a practical effect on Greece than an earlier move by the European Union to suspend Greece's voting rights, although both measures indicated a severe blow to Greek sovereignty within the European bloc.  From the point of view of the European Union, the verdict was that Greece's austerity plan contained insufficient spending cuts and uncoordinated measures, and compelled the need for such drastic action.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Greece took a different view.  Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou argued that  his country was "doing enough" to reduce its public deficit from 12 percent to eight percent of GDP in 2010 by undertaking emergency fiscal cuts.   Accordingly, Greece has also been reticent about taking further austerity measures, such as an increase in the value added tax or VAT, as well as further public sector wage cuts, which the European Central Bank has said might be necessary. But the rest of Europe was unlikely to receive Greece's claims on faith alone, given  the emerging revelations that Wall Street likely helped Greece hide its balance sheets problem for the purpose of advancing euro zone accession.

Also at issue have been the fiscal challenges of  Portugal and Spain, which like Greece, have to contend with debt and weakened public finances. One challenge for Spain is the fact that the central government (leaving the social security administration aside)  controls only one third of public sector spending.  Accordingly, while the central government can set guidelines for the regional and municipal authorities, it has a fairly limited effect on overall fiscal policy. In Portugal, the government does not command a majority in parliament, effectively complicating the process of implementing fiscal policies, and necessitating broad national consensus on the matter of the country's economic health.  Ireland, like Greece,  suffers from budget deficits that exceed 12 percent of their economic output. However, Ireland's record in navigating difficult economic times (late 1980s, early 1990s) was believed to be in that country's favor.

By the third week of February 2010, as talks in Brussels commenced about the financial crisis in Greece, there was no consensus on the possible path toward helping stabilize the situation in that country.  In fact, member states of the European Union appeared divided on the issue.  Germany has said it wants to protect its own financial interests by constructing a "firewall" to prevent Greece's debt crisis from spiraling out of control.  It was not known if that "firewall" was distinct from, or an actual euphemism for, a bailout  for Greece funded by German funds.  Certainly,  Germany has been careful not to expressly state that it supports some sort of bailout measure for Greece, under the aegis of the European Union , using Germany funds.  Indeed, Berlin would have to contend with an outraged domestic reaction, as well as a resistant coalition partner in government whose libertarian inclinations would leave them far from sanguine about such a move.

At the broader level, the European Union has been faced with the moral hazard of having to consider going down a similar path with Spain and Portugal, not to mention other European countries.  Clearly, the European Union had no appetite for such a precedent being set in Greece.  Not surprisingly, non-euro zone European Union members, such as the United Kingdom  and Sweden, were recommending the International Monetary Fund  route.  They argued that an entity such as the IMF possessed the technocratic acumen and experience to orchestrate and supply a loan bailout to Greece.

The situation in these European countries -- specifically on their debt burdens -- has focused attention concomitantly on the European Union where countries of the euro zone share currency but not economic policies, and whose collective fates would be affected by a devalued euro.  Indeed, the euro itself has seen its value slide as a result of rising economic anxieties, and questions have once again surfaced regarding its viability.

At the start of March 2010, in the face of pressure from the European Union, the Greek government agreed to a  new package of austerity measures, including tax increases and spending cuts, aimed at resolving the budget crisis.  The new package was met with approval from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, who respectively hailed the move as evidence that Greece was taking necessary measures to reduce its precarious debt.  The reactions of these two bodies were regarded as crucial, since Greece was hoping for German-funded assistance from the European Union, with the International Monetary Fund in line as an alternative avenue of assistance.

Nevertheless, since the measures included reductions in holiday bonuses paid to civil servants as well as a pension freeze, it effectively raised the ire of public sector workers and trade unions.  From their point of view, the financial package would exact a punishing toll on the workers of the country.  Not surprisingly, the country was hit by strikes with workers angrily protesting the deficit-cutting government measures detailed above.

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International Hot Stories
 

Europe: Bosnia-Herzegovina

Former Bosnian Serb leader Karadzic begins denies atrocities at war crimes tribunals in The Hague,

On Feb. 26, 2010, the war crimes and genocide trial of former Bosnian Serb General Zdravko Tolimir began  in The Hague.  Tolimir was arrested in May 2007 and was alleged to be the assistant commander for intelligence and security at a time when Bosnian Serb soldiers  executed thousands of Muslim men and boys at the Branjevo Military Farm and the Pilica Cultural Center. Tolimir  has the notorious distinction of being  third on the list of wanted suspects.

At the top of the list has been Bosnian Serb military leader Ratko Mladic, who has not yet been apprehended despite attempts to find him in Bosnia, and in the face of claims that the Serbian government was also seeking his detainment.  Second on the most wanted list has been Bosnian Serb political leader, Radovan Karadzic, who was arrested in July 2008 and whose trial was set to begin on March 1, 2010.  Like Tolimir, Karadzic said he would represent himself.  Both men were facing crimes relating to the 1995 genocide at Srebrenica during the war in Bosnia. Karadzic was specifically facing two charges of genocide, as well as nine other counts including murder, extermination, persecution and forced deportation.

In court, Karadzic denied both that  atrocities ensued during the 1990s Bosnian war, and that he was involved in them.  During the first days of his trial,  Karadzic said that  Sarajevo -- a city where approximately 12,000 people died -- was "not a city under siege" by Bosnian Serb forces. Instead, Karadzic said that the city was simply "divided."  He denied any responsibility for war crimes, saying instead that during the conflict,  gunfire and shelling in Sarajevo by Bosnian Serbs had been limited to legitimate targets. He also dismissed as "false myths," the claim that 7,000 Muslim men and boys were killed in what has commonly come to be known as the 1995 Srebrenica massacre.  Moreover, Karadzic characterized the Bosnian war as "just and holy," and said that it had been ignited by Bosniaks – also known as Bosnian Muslims.  He asserted that his actions were motivated by a desire to  defend Bosnian Serbs from "state-sponsored terrorism."

Europe: Russia

Islamist rebel leader killed in Ingushetia

In early March 2010, an Islamist rebel leader in Ingushetia was killed during a raid by Russian troops.  Seven other rebels also died in the incident, according to the Russia's Federal Security Service.  Alexander Tikhomirov, also known as Said Buryatsky, was believed to have been responsible for the bombing of a train in November 2009 that left 26 people dead.  While Tikhomirov had actually acknowledged his involvement in that attack, which was officially claimed by "Causasian Mujahadeen,"  he did admit his involvement in the suicide attack on police headquarters in Nazran in August 2009.  In that attack, 20 policemen were reported to have died.

Similar acts of violence have plagued neighboring areas of the North Caucasus such as Chechnya and Dagestan over the decades.  In Moscow, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that violent insurgencies in the North Caucasus have prevailed as  Russia's most significant domestic challenge and a threat to national security. The Russian leader offered the view that poverty alleviation in the region should be part of the solution aimed at stabilization of the area.  Indeed, expert analysts have likewise noted that poverty has been a driving motivator behind the decision of many youth to join extremist Islamic militant groups in the North Caucasus.

Europe: Russia; Americas: United States

As Russia and U.S. move towards new arms treaty, Obama calls for nuclear weapons reduction

On Feb. 24, 2010, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged her Russian counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, to move forward with efforts to finalize a new arms reduction treaty.  During a briefing, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said the United States' top diplomat "emphasized to the foreign minister that our negotiators are close to reaching an agreement and encouraged Russia to continue to move ahead, push hard so we can reach an agreement in the next couple of weeks."  That timeline seemed to coincide with Russian expectations, since a Russian lawmaker, Konstantin Kosachyov, noted that discussions were underway on a new treaty to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which  expired on Dec. 5, 2009.

As progress was being made on a successor treaty to START, United States President Barack Obama called for  a reduction in the number of nuclear weapons, as part of a changing national security strategy.  To this end, he said: "The United States reaffirms our resolve to strengthen the non-proliferation regime to meet the challenges of the 21st century as we pursue our ultimate vision of a world without nuclear weapons." As President Obama marked the  40th anniversary of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, he intimated new post-Cold War policy, saying: "Our forthcoming Nuclear Posture Review will move beyond outdated Cold War thinking and reduce the number and role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, even as we maintain a safe, secure and effective nuclear deterrent."  President Obama also said that he would work to  seek ratification on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which was adopted by the United Nations in 1996, but which has yet to enter into force.  These statements appeared to reify President Obama's vision of a nuclear-free world, which was laid out in a keynote speech in Prague in 2009.  It also came ahead of a nuclear security summit, set to take place  in Washington D.C. in April 2010.

Europe: Armenia; Europe/Asia: Turkey; Americas: United States

Despite approval by Congress, U.S. says it will not adopt Armenian genocide bill

In March 2010, the House Foreign Affairs Committee of the United States Congress approved a resolution, which characterized the World War I killing of Armenians by Turks as a genocide.  At issue for many Armenians has been the sense of betrayal over the deaths of 1.5 Armenians between 1915 and 1923 at the hand of the Ottoman Empire.  Armenia has steadfastly called for international recognition of what they term as the Armenian genocide, but Turkey has vociferously denied this bloody legacy. Instead, Turkey has acknowledged atrocities but emphasized that there was no systematic targeting of Armenian Christians. The Armenian call for recognition came to fruition in the United States, largely as a result of the determination of the Armenian diaspora, particularly in California.  But with it has come the outrage of the Turkish government.  Indeed, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the resolution at hand could deleteriously affect relations with the United States, while  Turkish President Abdullah Gul said Turkey  would "not be responsible for the negative results that this event may lead to."

With an eye on preserving its crucial NATO alliance with Turkey, the Obama administration said it intended to  block the bill from passage into law.  This scenario repeated a similar situation two years prior when the same committee approved a similar resolution, but which did not go forward due to concerns of the previous Bush administration for precisely the same reason.  President Barack Obama, however, had said he intended to characterize the mass deaths of Armenian Christians as a genocide during his 2008 campaign for the presidency.  As such, this new position by his administration was regarded as something of a policy reversal. Secretary of States Hillary Clinton explained the shift noting that circumstances had "changed in very significant ways."  Specifically, she pointed toward the 2009 accord, which normalized bilateral relations between Armenia and Turkey.

Asia: Pakistan; Americas: United States

U.S.-born  al-Qaida militant arrested in Pakistan

In early March 2010, an American-born Islamic militant was arrested in  the Pakistani city of Karachi.   At the time, Pakistani security authorities claimed the militant was the American-born spokesman, Adam Gadahn, who has been seen in numerous videotaped addresses by  al-Qaida. That being said, official confirmation was yet to be issued by Islamabad and Washington D.C.   In fact, Pakistan soon reversed the claim that the militant in its custody was Gadahn, although it noted that the individual was indeed an American-born militant for the terrorist group al-Qaida.

Ironically, this arrest came just as another al-Qaida videotape emerged in which the actual Gadahn praised United Sates Army Major Nidal Malik Hasan for killing 13 people at the Fort Hood army base.  In that address, Gadahn also called on American Muslims to carry out further attacks in the United States.  Gadahn gained the dubious distinction of being the first American charged with treason in 50 years. Born in California, Gadahn  converted to Islam in his youth, moved to Pakistan in 1998, and attended a terrorist training camp in that country in 2004.

Asia: China, Taiwan; Americas: United States

U.S. Congress approves military sale to Taiwan and sparks anger of China

On March 2, 2010, the United States agreed to move forward with the sale of missiles, helicopters and ships to Taiwan, effectively sparking the anger of the Chinese government in Beijing.  Following a 30-day period in which objections could be registered but which passed without comment, the United States Congress approved the arms deal. Despite a thawing of relations generally between Washington D.C. and Beijing, this move was expected to raise bilateral tensions, which had been strained over a number of issues ranging from Internet censorship to climate change.

The United States' moved to dispatch envoys to Beijing to calm the situation.  But on the other side of the equation,  the Chinese government  made it clear that arms sales to Taiwan would deleteriously affect Sino-American relations.   Taiwanese claims of sovereignty notwithstanding, Beijing asserted a "One China" policy in which Taiwan is viewed as under its jurisdiction.  Arms sales to Taiwan by the United States have been viewed by China as a way of undermining Beijing's "One China" claim. For its part, however, the United States has been compelled to ensure Taiwan's ability to defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act.  In an effort to act in accordance with this accord, while also recognizing China's sensitive relationship with Taiwan, United States President Barack Obama attempted the geopolitical balancing act by reaffirming his country’s  acknowledgment of "only one China."

Pacific: Fiji

Assassination plot against Prime Minister Bainimarama in Fiji results in jail time

On March 5, 2010, eight men were found guilty of attempting to assassinate interim  Prime Minister Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama three years prior and were given sentences ranging from three to seven years.

High Court Justice Paul Madigan said during his judgment that the facts of the case surrounded  a conspiracy plot that was likely forged in the first part of 2007, but which only came to the attention of the Military Intelligence Services several months later.  He made note of a conversation between one defendant and an undercover agent in which the assassination of Bainimarama was discussed.  Justice Madigan noted that  later meetings revealed the depths of the plot, with all of the defendants playing roles in the conspiracy.  To that end, there were apparent plans to undermine the military, establish a police state, and even call on Australia  and New Zealand for assistance.

At issue has been December 2006 military coup, led by Bainimarama, in which the elected government was deposed.  Bainimarama said that he was acting to bridge the ethnic divide that had poisoned the political climate in Fiji; however, his refusal to set the country back on the path towards democracy has raised the ire of critics at home and abroad.

Americas: Guatemala

Guatemalan security chief arrested for links to drug trafficking; interior minister sacked for corruption

In March 2010, Guatemala's chief of national police, Baltazar Gomez,  as well as its chief anti-drugs official, Nelly Bonilla,  were arrested over alleged links to drug trafficking.  The charges against the two included  conspiracy to commit a crime, illegal possession of weapons and obstruction of justice.  At issue was a case of cocaine theft a year earlier in which five security officers were killed.  Describing the involvement of Gomez and Bonilla in that crime, Attorney General Amilcar Velasquez said, "The captures were the result of tracking the investigation into the drug robbery that took place in Amatitlan, which those detained today are believed to have participated in."  The arrests came in the aftermath of a decision by President Alvaro Colom to sack Interior Minister Raul Velasquez over alleged corruption.  In the background of these developments has been an increase in crime in Guatemala, largely attributed to the influx of Mexican drug gangs, set within the wider context  corruption and poor law enforcement plaguing Guatemala in recent times.

Africa: Nigeria

Over 100 dead in Nigerian town of Jos

In late January 2010,  the central Nigerian town of Jos -- the capital of Plateau state --  was the site of brutal sectarian violence.  Indeed, clashes between Muslim and Christian cadres  left hundreds of people dead, thousands injured, and thousands more displaced as a result. The provincial government instituted a temporary curfew, while the federal government, led by Goodluck Jonathan, deployed a heavy troop presence in the streets, aimed at restoring calm and security.   That calm and security was likely to be tested by the discovery of hundreds of bodies found stuffed in wells and sewage pits.  Human Rights Watch demanded that  Vice President Goodluck Jonathan carry out a criminal investigation into what appeared to be a massacre.

More than a month later in March 2010, the same central Nigerian town of Jos was hit by another wave of violence, which left more than 100 people dead as a result of religious conflict.  Several villages were targeted in overnight attacks when gangs of men with machetes and guns arrived in their midst.  In the village of Dogo-Nahawa, eyewitness accounts details the men firing guns to draw people out of the houses, and then hacking them to death. An aid worker from the  charity, Stefanus Foundation, Mark Lipdo, said that the village of Zot had been practically wiped out.  He lamented the fact that the majority of the victims were elderly or children, since they were unable to quickly flee.  In response, Acting President Goodluck Jonathan placed security forces in the region on high alert.

The location of Jos in Plateau lies at the crossroads of the predominantly Muslim north and the largely Christian south. The city itself has been divided along religious lines, with tensions exacerbated by the prevailing system of stratification between Hausa-speaking Muslims settlers and Christian indigenes.  With this complicated socio-cultural landscape, Jos has seen religious violence before, as evidenced by the bloody ethno-sectarian riots that erupted in 2008.  At that time, several hundreds of people were killed while homes, mosques and churches were destroyed.

 
Africa: Ethiopia

Millions in aid earmarked for famine-wracked Ethiopia went to arms purchases

On March 3, 2010, it was revealed that millions in Western aid, which was earmarked for the victims of the famine plaguing Ethiopia in the mid-1980s, instead went towards the purchase of weapons.  The report by the BBC drew upon both interviews with former rebels as well as documents by the Central Intelligence Agency.  It noted that  militant leaders presented themselves as merchants in order to divert aid money towards the purchase of arms.  This occurred at a time when the government of Ethiopia was fighting rebels in the northern provinces of Eritrea and Tigray.  In one case, Gebremedhin Araya, a senior member of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, posed as a merchant to procure funds for his group. Among the leadership of the Tigray People's Liberation Front was Meles Zenawi who became Ethiopia's prime minister in 1991. For his part, Prime Minister Zenawi issued no response to the allegations ensconced within the BBC report.

Africa: Chad

Chad agrees to extend presence of U.N. peacekeepers in border zone with Sudan

In mid-February 2010, the human rights group, Amnesty International,  urged Chad to reverse its decision to order United Nations troops out of that country. At issue was Chadian President Idriss Deby's decision to ask the United Nations Security Council not to renew the mandate of the mission monitoring the border in the eastern part of the country, which was set to expire in March 2010.

President Deby has argued that the United Nations forces were never fully deployed and thus not fully capable of fulfilling the mandate to protect civilians anyway.  However, Amnesty International  warned that the departure of the United Nations troops would place the lives of hundreds of thousands of people at risk.  In particular, the human rights group pointed to the need to protect up to 250,000 refugees from Darfur in Sudan and 170,000 internally displaced people in the eastern part of the country. Amnesty International countered President Deby's argument by noting that, while the deployment  of United Nations troops has been slow over the past few years, for the first time, deployment levels had rise to around 70 percent of the level set by the United Nations Security Council.  Amnesty International pointed to the fact that the alarming increase in the number of attacks on humanitarian workers and civilians experienced in late 2009 were now on a downward slide thanks to the strengthened presence of United Nations troops in vulnerable border areas.

By March 2010, Chad agreed to extend the mission of United Nations peacekeepers in the border region.  Despite his criticisms of the mission, President Deby said that 4,000 United  Nations peacekeepers could remain in his country for an additional two months. This decision came after a meeting with the United Nations chief of peacekeeping.

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Spotlight

Americas: United States

President Obama urges passage of health care reform by simple majority

With the passage of health care reform legislation hanging in the balance, United States President Barack Obama urged Congress to vote by simple majority  on the matter.  To date, Republicans in the Congress have threatened to derail  health care reform, expressing wholesale disapproval for its provisions, despite its similarity to proposals advocated in the past by Republicans.  Republican objections held particular significance in the Senate where legislation can sometimes be subject to parliamentary filibuster, and may require a super-majority of 60.  Difficult or controversial legislation, however, have sometimes been passed through a budgetary reconciliation process that by-passes the need for a super-majority.  Such was the case years earlier when the previous Bush administration sought to pass tax cuts and used the reconciliation process to achieve that end.  Now, with a bipartisan health care support yielding no productive  results, the Obama administration was advocating the same approach.

In a speech at the White House, President Obama said: "I believe the United States Congress owes the American people a final vote on healthcare reform."  He emphasized the need to achieve results for the American people, saying, "At stake right now is not just our ability to solve this problem, but our ability to solve any problem."  He also rejected the Republicans' call for the entire reform process to be restarted saying, "For us to start over now could simply lead to delay that could last for another decade or even more."  Finally, President Obama made clear that he was sanctioning the vote by simple majority  when he stated that  health care legislation "deserves the same kind of up-or-down vote that was cast on welfare reform, the Children's Health Insurance Program, Cobra health coverage for the unemployed, and both Bush tax cuts."  All of these measures were themselves passed into law  using reconciliation.  On March 4, 2010, the White House indicated that it was hoping to see progress on health care reform before the president was scheduled to leave for a trip to Australia on March 18, 2010.

Americas: United States

Man with anti-government inclination shoots two Pentagon police

On March 5, 2010, John Patrick Bedell shot two police officers at the Pentagon; the two police officers were superficially wounded while the suspect was seriously wounded in the responding gunfire.  He later died at George Washington University Hospital.  Bedell was reported to have been motivated by anti-government inclinations, however, authorities stopped short of labeling him a terrorist. Instead, they emphasized the fact that he worked alone much like the
suspect who flew an aircraft into an Internal Revenue Service building in Austin, Texas, only weeks prior.  Both incidents occurred at a time when the Southern Poverty Law Center released a report asserting that anti-government "patriot" groups, including militias and other extremist organizations that hold an antagonistic view of the federal government, have become energized in the last year.  For about a decade, such groups were largely dormant.  The report titled "Rage on the Right," postulated that   political, demographic and economic changes in America have "ignited an explosion of new extremist groups and activism across the nation."  See URL: http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-report/browse-all-issues/2010/spring/rage-on-the-right for more details.
 

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Government and Politics

Europe: Ukraine

Yanukovych inaugurated into office as new president of Ukraine; Tymoshenko out as prime minister

Ukraine's Central Election Commission officially confirmed Yanukovych as the election winner as president-elect on Feb. 14, 2010.  This result was suspended two days later by a Ukrainian court as Tymoshenko carried out a legal challenge.   The court, however, noted that while its ruling would determine whether to nullify the election results, it had no bearing on whether or not the inauguration of Yanukovych on Feb. 25, 2010 would go forward.

Regardless, by the third week of February 2010, Tymoshenko withdrew  her legal challenge, saying that the court was not interested in justice and charging that the court proceedings exhibited a bias against her.  She said, "Given that the court is refusing to establish the truth in essence, I withdrew my lawsuit at today's morning sitting of the Supreme Administrative Court and asked the court to stop this show, which bears no resemblance to justice."  While the move ensured that Yanukovych would become the new president of Ukraine, it also set up a high stakes political power struggle.  At issue was the fact that Yanukovych was eager for Tymoshenko to step down as prime minister, noting that he would not be able to work with her in the executive branch of government, and that the country risked remaining in a state of political stalemate.  Yanukovych expressed the view that Tymoshenko was better suited to be leader of the parliamentary opposition.  For her part, however, Tymoshenko was in no hurry to resign from her position as head of government.

On Feb. 25, 2010, Victor Yanukovych was officially inaugurated into office as the new president of Ukraine. He thusly became the fourth head of state of that country since gaining independence from the former Soviet Union. Several international dignitaries were present for the occasion including the leaders of Poland, Armenia, Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania.  In his inaugural address, President Yanukovych said, "A new period  of our new history is beginning. The country is in a difficult situation." He also indicated a pragmatic foreign policy engaged with the European Union (EU), Russia and the United States, for the benefit of the country.  The new president said, "Ukraine will choose such a foreign policy that will allow the state to get the maximum results from the development of equal and mutually advantageous relations with Russia, the European Union, the United States and other governments."

A week later, Ukraine's parliament  passed a motion of no-confidence in Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's government.  As a result Tymoshenko and her cabinet were forced to resign from office, setting the stage for President Yanukovych to form a new coalition in parliament, and thusly, a new government.  Failure to successfully do so within 30 days would trigger snap parliamentary elections.  Despite her earlier reluctance to step away from the position of head of government, Tymoshenko was now making clear that a no-confidence vote would be an end to her government in any capacity.  She said before the vote, "If the dismissal of the government is passed today, at that very same moment our government will leave the cabinet. Our political force will cross into the opposition."  She continued by explaining that her new role as such, "We will protect Ukraine from this new calamity that has befallen her."
 

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Elections Update

Central Asia:

Parliamentary elections in Tajikistan

Parliamentary elections were held on Feb. 28, 2010,  in Tajikistan.  Voter turnout was said to be very high, exceeding 85 percent, according to the Central Election Commission.  That high participation level met the 50 percent plus one threshold and the election was thusly declared to be valid.  Tajikistan's ruling People's Democratic Party, led by incumbent President Emomali Rakhmon, was expected to retain its power in parliament.  Ahead of the election, the People's Democratic Party controlled 57 of the 63 seats in the parliament.

One day after the election, Tajikistan's Central Election Commission said  that President  Rakhmon's ruling Democratic People's Party won a landslide victory with 71.7 percent of the vote share. This percentage translated into control over 53 of the 63 seats in parliament and, thus, a slightly reduced majority from before.  Other seats in parliament were secured by the opposition Islamic Revival Party and the pro-government Communists.  On the other side of the equation, the Democratic Party, the Socialist Party, the Social Democratic Party, the Economic Reform Party and the Agrarian Party respectively failed to pass the five percent threshold required to secure a seat in the lower house.

One of the main opposition entities, the Islamic Revival Party, warned it would challenge the result in court, on the basis of voting irregularities.  Election monitors from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) had said that the elections went off in a free and transparent manner. However, monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the United States embassy to Tajikistan recorded several election abuses and violations.
 

Africa: Togo

Presidential election in Togo

Citizens of Togo voted in a presidential election on March 4, 2010. President Faure Gnassingbe was hoping that the election resulted in a second term in office, and his main challengers were Jean Pierre Fabre of the Union of Forces for Change (UFC) and Brigitte Adjambo-Johnson, who was hoping to become the country's first female leader. The election came five years after the previous poll, which was marred by violence and disputed results.  Ahead of election day, there were no reports of violence although 6,000 security forces were deployed across the country to ensure safety.  As well, an independent election commission was now in place to oversee the election process, while more than 500 observers from the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States, and the European Union were in Togo to monitor the vote.  Provisional results indicated victory for incumbent President Gnassingbe, however, they were yet to be approved by the country's constitutional court.

As reports emerged from Togo, it was clear that the outcome of the election was going to be subject to challenges -- both in judicial court and in the court of public opinion.  Opposition leader, Jean-Pierre Fabre, charged that the vote was rigged and vowed to launch challenges  and spur protests. With an eye on likely unrest and uprising, riot police were deployed to the streets of the Togolese capital of Lome.  There, they encountered hundreds of angry opposition protestors and tried to repel them by firing tear gas.  But Fabre appeared undeterred and promised further protests saying in an interview with the Associated Press, "We're going to make them exhaust their stock of tear gas."  He continued, "We cannot let this go on, otherwise they'll hang on to power for the next 200 years."

Middle East: Iraq

Parliamentary Elections in Iraq

See "Featured Country" above for details

 

Current and forthcoming elections include --

Dec. 7, 2009: Final attempt to elect Moldova's president
Dec. 13, 2009: Chile's presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 18,  2009: Elections in Dominica
Dec. 27,  2009: Uzbekistan general elections
Dec. 27, 2009: Croatian presidential election (first round)
Jan. 10, 2010: Croatian presidential election (second round)
Jan. 17, 2010; Ukraine's presidential election (first round)
Jan.17, 2010: Chile's presidential election (second round)
Jan. 25, 2010: General elections in St. Kitts and Nevis
Jan.26, 2010: Sri Lanka's presidential election
Feb. 7,  2010: Costa Rica's parliamentary and presidential elections
Feb. 7, 2010: Ukraine's presidential election (second round)
Feb. 28,  2010: Tajikistan's parliamentary elections
February 2010: Greece's presidential election
March 4, 2010: Togo's new date for presidential election
March 7, 2010: Iraq's parliamentary elections
March 14, 2010: Colombia's parliamentary elections
March 16, 2010: Guinea's parliamentary elections
March 20, 2010: Tentative timeframe for general elections of Madagascar
March 2010: Central African Republic's parliamentary election and presidential election (first round)
April 4, 2010: Unconfirmed date of postponed parliamentary elections of Sao Tome and Principe
April 11-13, 2010: Sudan's presidential elections (also listed as possible date for parliamentary polls)
April 2010: Austria's presidential election
April 2010: Hungary's parliamentary elections
April 2010: Northern Cyprus' presidential election (first round)
April 2010: Solomon Islands parliamentary elections
April 2010: Sri Lanka's parliamentary elections
April 2010: Laos' parliamentary elections
May 10, 2010: Philippines' parliamentary and presidential elections
May 16, 2010: Dominican Republic's parliamentary elections
May 19-24, 2010: Madagascar's parliamentary elections
May 22, 2010: Afghanistan's parliamentary elections
May 23, 2010: Ethiopia's parliamentary elections
May 25,  2010: Suriname's parliamentary elections
May 30, 2010: Colombia's presidential election
May 2010: Egypt's parliamentary elections (contrary date; see November 2010 below)
June 9, 2010: Parliamentary elections in the Netherlands
June 12, 2010: Slovak Republic's parliamentary elections
June 28, 2010: Burundi's presidential election (first round)
June 2010: United Kingdom's parliamentary elections
June 2010: Czech Republic's parliamentary elections
June 2010: Hungary's presidential election
June 2010: Laos' presidential election
July 23-28, 2010: Burundi's parliamentary elections
July 26, 2010L Burundi's presidential election (second round)
July 2010: Mauritius' parliamentary elections
July 2010: Tuvalu's parliamentary elections
July 2010: Japan's parliamentary elections
July 2010: Suriname's presidential election
Before mid- 2010: Tentative timeframe for general elections in Myanmar/Burma
Mid-2010: Tentative timeframe for presidential election in Guinea
Aug. 9, 2010: Rwanda's presidential election
Sept. 19, 2010: Sweden's parliamentary elections
Sept.  26, 2010: Venezuela's parliamentary elections
Oct. 2, 2010: Latvia's parliamentary elections
Oct. 3, 2010: Brazil's parliamentary elections and presidential election (first round)
Oct. 31, 2010: Brazil's presidential election (second round)
October 2010: Tanzania's presidential and parliamentary elections
October 2010: Madagascar's presidential election
October 2010: Poland's presidential election (first round)
October 2010: Bosnia-Herzegovina's presidential and parliamentary elections
October 2010: Czech Republic's parliamentary elections
Nov. 2, 2010: United States' parliamentary elections
Nov. 7, 2010: Azerbaijan's parliamentary elections
Nov. 21, 2010: Burkina Faso's presidential election
Nov. 28, 2010: Chad's elections
November 2010: Bahrain's parliamentary elections
November 2010: Egypt's parliamentary elections (contrary date; see May 2010 also)
November 2010: Haiti's presidential election
December 2010: St. Vincent and the Grenadines' parliamentary elections
December 2010: Nauru's presidential election
December 2010: Jordan's parliamentary elections
December 2010: Equatorial Guinea's presidential election

Note also -

- Second round of Afghan presidential election set for Nov. 7, 2009, was cancelled
- Presidential election in Niger set for Nov. 14 and Dec. 6, 2009, has been cancelled
- Nov. 29, 2009, presidential election in Cote d'Ivoire, rescheduled for Feb.or March 2010 but postponed again
- Presidential election originally set for September 2009 in Angola was postponed
- Guinea's presidential election (first round) likely postponed from January 2010 due to instability
- Haiti's Feb. 28. 2010, parliamentary elections not expected to go forward due to devastation of earthquake
- No date available for elections in Yemen
- Despite international pressure, no date available for anticipated elections in Fiji
- Parliamentary elections in Canada are possible
- Presidential election possible in Moldova

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Editor's Note:

CountryWatch's coverage of global political events and developments is not an endorsement of any country's political priorities or any political interest group's agenda. CountryWatch takes a politics-neutral approach and encourages users to consider a variety of viewpoints and the complex range of parameters when studying either domestic politics or the international spectrum.

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- Denise Youngblood Coleman Ph.D.
   Houston, Texas

*** Last Updated March 8, 2010 ***